Posted in: Wayne's World The King of Stats gives his pre-PPV Analysis of Turning Point 2012
By zzzorf
Nov 11, 2012 - 4:45:40 AM
Welcome back one and all to the greatest prediction column to have ever found a home on Lords of Pain; I am the King of Stats, the man for whom everything can be broken down into numbers. Last month I debuted my prediction system here on the Main Page and managed to correctly pick 4 out of 7 at Bound for Glory. This took my tally for TNA up to 56% (9/16) which is below my overall average of 59% (47/79). I am glad that this PPV is called Turning Point as I hope that this is a turning point for my TNA prediction score. Well let’s see who the stats say will win this time shall we.
Previous Meetings:
November 1 2012 – Impact: Ryan by pinfall
Joey Ryan 1-0
Champions Advantage: Rob Van Dam
Company Status: It is hard to imagine that Joey Ryan, a guy who has been in the company less than a hiccup, has much company status as yet. He is unproven in terms of what he can do for the company, yes they are riding the slight momentum he has at the moment but they are also really wary of how far they can take it. RVD on the other hand is a proven force in TNA, someone they like to chuck in to help make the show more exciting.
My Analysis: No matter how much TNA want to try to get me to I just don’t like Joey Ryan, the character he portrays just plain creeps me out. Because I don’t like his character it makes it hard for me to watch his matches so I don’t even really know if I like his wrestling style. For that reason I don’t want to see him as X-Division champion but also I don’t think he is ready to carry a title, he needs a little more time. I really hope that RVD retains his title here.
Prediction: Rob Van Dam (7-3 criteria)
Joseph Park v DOC
Criteria
Joseph Park
DOC
Criteria Winner
TNA win %
54%
148/273
33%
1/3
Joseph Park
PPV win %
55%
67/121
40%
2/5
Joseph Park
Last 10
7
5
Joseph Park
Last 50
25
17
Joseph Park
Turning Point
win%
57%
4/7
N/A
Joseph Park
Company Status: I won’t go into great detail here as we have the exact same situation here that we had in the first match-up. DOC is new to the company whereas Park has been around for years and is the proven force.
My Analysis: While I like the Joseph Park character I am starting to hope they move on soon. The character has been stagnant for so long and they keep teasing him remembering he is Abyss but never seem to be ready to pull the trigger. I am a massive Abyss fan and I miss seeing him, I don’t really care if they keep him as Parks just as long as he is actually able to wrestle like he used to again. However I look at this though DOC (what a ridiculous name that is, what is he one of the dwarves or something?) has to win. While seeing Parks win would make me happy it is Aces & 8’s that need the momentum going forward and a win by DOC will start that momentum rolling, plus it could be the catalyst for Parks finally snapping. Yes DOC should win.
Prediction: Joseph Park (7-1 criteria)
Eric Young & ODB v Tara & Jesse
Criteria
Eric Young
ODB
Tara
Jesse
Criteria Winner
TNA win %
48%
94/196
51%
50/98
49%
46/94
25%
1/4
Eric Young & ODB
PPV win %
52%
35/67
55%
12/22
38%
15/40
N/A
Eric Young & ODB
As Team
71%
5/7
0%
0/1
Eric Young & ODB
Turning Point
win %
86%
6/7
50%
1/2
50%
1/2
N/A
Eric Young & ODB
Company Status: While EY would normally win this particular point for his team with the length of time he has been with the company and what he means to it I have had to think twice with recent developments. If it is true that this could be his last match then you would have to believe that his status with the company is mute, it just doesn’t matter because what can they do with him now? Jesse is the one being pushed and even though his status is low at the moment it is higher than the zero amount EY has.
My Analysis: To say I am not interested in this match is an understatement which is quite a shame since there are 3 wrestlers in the match that I don’t mind. The story binding all these names is just ridiculous. While I don’t mind the relationship storylines I just hate the ones that are done so far over the top like these two have been. I have to give the win here to the team who at least has offered some entertainment for me during their time together and pick EY and ODB.
Past Meetings:
November 1 2012 – Impact: Joe by DQ
October 14 2012 – Bound for Glory: Joe by submission
August 15 2012 – Impact: Joe by pinfall
Samoa Joe 3-0
Champions Advantage: Samoa Joe
Company Status: I think last month proved my point with company status with these two. Magnus had the chance to have a major push by winning a title from Samoa Joe on their biggest PPV but instead they let Joe keep the title because in the long run he means more to the company.
My Analysis: I am really torn here on which way to go. Last month I went with Magnus as I saw the push that he would get would do him wonders and while he would still get a push now it won’t be as big as beating him at Bound for Glory. Samoa on the other hand has been doing some good work of late and would love to see that continue. I think in the end I will go with Samoa just because he is the wrestler I prefer of these two.
Prediction: Samoa Joe (11-0 criteria) (note: This has started to be called the Kiss of Death as the majority of clean sweeps tend to actually be won by the wrestler on 0)
Devon v Kurt Angle
Criteria
Devon
Kurt Angle
Criteria Winner
TNA win %
48%
86/179
52%
107/205
Kurt Angle
PPV win %
48%
67/142
53%
81/153
Kurt Angle
Last 10
5
2
Devon
Last 50
24
24
Draw
Turning Point
win %
75%
3/4
50%
2/4
Devon
Company Status: Company status here is a really tough call; it could really go either way. Both have been long tenured members of the roster who have both given a lot to the company. I think in the end that it comes down to the brand name of each and Angle is easily worth more to the company in those terms.
My Analysis: I stated earlier in the DOC v Park match that Aces & 8 require the momentum going forward and that is no different here. If the major face of the group loses here than it could put a major halt on them in the near future. A loss to Angle though would do nothing to him; he could just as easily be back in the title picture next week without batting an eyelid. It comes down to quite a simple thing, Devon needs a win, Angle does not.
Tie-Breaker: Due to the scores being locked the decider as usual goes to my 10-year old son Zachery, he says Kurt Angle because "Devon is not a big enough star to knock over a big name like Angle"
Previous Meetings:
September 6 2012 – Impact: Daniels/Kazarian by pinfall (Tag Titles)
Daniels & Kazarian 1-0
Champions Advantage: Chavo & Hernandez
Company Status: This point really just comes down to the fact that Chavo has barely been with the company for that long, a lot shorter compared to the other three in the match. Then you look at Hernandez and while he has been around as long as Daniels and Kaz he has proven over the years that he is not as big of a draw. Kaz and Daniels are both big names in TNA and have proven that time and time again.
My Analysis: I have always been a fan of Hernandez but I find that he is better as a tag team wrestler than he is when he is on his own. In Chavo he has found the perfect partner, just like he did in Homicide all those years ago. While Daniels and Kazarian are a good team I prefer them both individually than together, they have just got more room to do what they do best. I want Chavo and Hernandez to retain and move on to another team so Kaz and Daniels can move back to one of the singles divisions.
Prediction: Christopher Daniels & Kazarian (5-4 criteria)
AJ Styles v Bobby Roode v James Storm
Criteria
AJ Styles
Bobby Roode
James Storm
Criteria Winner
TNA win %
53%
228/432
49%
147/301
55%
202/370
James Storm
PPV win %
54%
105/194
50%
49/98
54%
93/173
AJ Styles
James Storm
Last 10
2
2
3
James Storm
Last 50
20
23
25
James Storm
Triple Threat
win %
35%
13/37
75%
3/4
N/A
Bobby Roode
Turning Point
win %
50%
4/8
71%
5/7
43%
3/7
Bobby Roode
Company Status: How do you split these three? I mean seriously what you say about one can be said about all of them. They are three guys who have helped shape the company in their many years of service and are now all big stars with the company. I think in the end it comes down to the fact that AJ has for a long time been classed as the face of the company, he is their biggest star and therefore just slightly edges out his opponents.
My analysis: It doesn’t matter which of these three won this match as I would be fine with any of them main eventing the next PPV with the champion. I think the real story to this match is who is actually going to be the person who gets pinned and therefore will be removed from the TNA Title scene for the majority of the year. Roodes run with the title last year was one of the best reigns I have seen from either company in the last few years and seeing him back in the title hunt that was denied from him after his rematch against Aries would be quite acceptable. By removing him from the picture again you lose the biggest heel who is not a member of Aces & 8’s out of the title hunt. Over the last year Storm has made himself one of the most over stars in the company because of his quest for revenge on Roode and to get his title back he was cheated out of. With his revenge on Roode done at Bound for Glory taking away his chance to get his title might mean that he loses all his momentum. AJ has been removed from the title picture for so long now due to the Daniels storyline that a return to it would be a fresh change but removing a chance could leave their poster boy with nothing to do. In the end I believe it should be Storm who takes the fall as removing either of the others takes either their biggest heel or one of their biggest draws from the equation. As to who should win I think it should be AJ as he will draw a better match out of his potential opponents at the next PPV.
Prediction: James Storm (4-3-2) (note: By theory that means Bobby Roode will be the person pinned as he scored the least)
Previous Meetings:
November 1 2012 – Impact: Hardy by pinfall
October 14 2012 – Bound for Glory: Hardy by pinfall (TNA Title)
Jeff Hardy 2-0
Champions Advantage: Jeff Hardy
Company Status: Well this one is pretty easy since Jeff Hardy is their biggest cash cow at the moment and the most over star on the roster.
My Analysis: Last month I stated that I didn’t want Jeff to win the title, now that he has I have to deal with it. While I don’t necessarily want him to have it now, I would prefer to see him keep it then it return to Aries. It’s not that I don’t want Aries as champion, I just find that it is not time to put the belt back on him yet. I always find it stupid when a champion loses the belt straight back to the previous champ on the first defence, I mean what was the point in giving him the title in the first place? Also it is not as if Jeff is a bad champion, behind all his pretty tricks he can actually put on a good match and is a handy champion going forward. If my plan for the Triple Threat Match happens and AJ wins then a headlining match between Jeff and AJ would be phenomenal.
Prediction: Jeff Hardy (8-3 criteria)
So that’s it folks another pre-PPV Analysis in the books. So how did the stats go this time? Are the predictions looking good or are they way off target? Until next time remember THE STATS NEVER LIE.
