The King of Stats gives his pre-PPV Analysis for Payback 2013
Jun 16, 2013 - 10:53:00 AM
Welcome back one and all to the most in-depth prediction column to have ever graced the Main Page of Lords of Pain, I am your host The King of Stats and it is now time for me to give my pre-PPV Analysis of the upcoming WWE PPV known as Payback. For those of you who are new to this column and don’t know how it works it is quite simple, the idea is that I take a more traditional sport look at the matches by delving into the stats and thus predicting a winner from them. While my system is not foolproof (no ones system could claim to be), I am at least able to pick 3 out of every 5 matches correct ( I am currently sitting at 60% overall (58/96) and in the WWE individually (43/72)). Well enough of that, let’s get this show on the road shall we?
Sheamus v Damien Sandow
|Criteria||Sheamus||Damien Sandow||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||65%|
|PPV win %||48%|
February 19 2013 – Smackdown: Sheamus by pinfall
January 29 2013 – Smackdown: No Contest
January 28 2013 – Raw: Sheamus won Tables Match
November 19 2012 – Raw: Sheamus by pinfall
October 1 2012 – Raw: Sheamus by pinfall
August 28 2012 – Raw: Sheamus by count out
Company Status: For years it has been shown that Sheamus is a favourite of those in charge and at the moment things don’t seem to be any different with his constant winning still continuing to roll on.
My Analysis: Every time Sheamus comes up in one of my columns I find myself saying the exact same thing, while I don’t mind him as a wrestler he is one of my biggest hates in the WWE at the moment. In a time when WWE promotes Be A Star and the whole anti-bullying crusade having one of your top babyfaces being the biggest bully of all is just very very wrong. Just look at his current victim Damien Sandow, the lead representative in the WWE of those of us who have a higher IQ, the people more commonly known as nerds. Because Sandow keeps outsmarting him and showing Sheamus that he is the not the smartest cookie in the bunch that leads to Sheamus beating him up for it. To me this is not what one of the biggest faces of the Be A Star program should be doing, this is the exact thing they are trying to stop. Then you have Sandow who is easily one of the best heels going at the moment, being one of only a few wrestlers who can entertain me everytime they are on screen. While I know Sheamus will win again as that is what he does I would love to see Damien Sandow get his first win over Sheamus here and start a trend of moving up the card towards the main event.
Analysis Prediction: Sheamus (7-1 criteria)
My Prediction: Sheamus
Kaitlyn © v AJ Lee
|Criteria||Kaitlyn||AJ Lee||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||54%|
|PPV win %||40%|
March 25 2013 – Raw: AJ by count out
March 21 2013- NXT: Kaitlyn by pinfall (Divas Title)
May 8 2012 – Smackdown: AJ by pinfall
March 17 2011 – FCW: AJ won
February 3 2011 – FCW: AJ won
AJ Lee 4-1
Champions Advantage: Kaitlyn
Hotness Factor: I have said it before and I will say it again, Kaitlyn just does nothing for me. AJ on the other hand, as I continuously say, is the hottest woman in wrestling today.
Company Status: Even the WWE is aware that AJ is the lady who has been the driving force behind the Diva’s division for the last year or two, there is a reason why she is the Diva seen the most times on a WWE broadcast.
My Analysis: This is a match that should have happened months ago. It was obvious when Kaitlyn won the title from Eve, other than the fact that Eve was leaving the company, that Kaitlyn was the transitional champ to get the title over to AJ. The fact that I think Kaitlyn should never have been champion, let alone still employed, is not the point. AJ will be champion come the end of Payback, if not I will be yelling at my screen with every expletive I can remember.
Analysis Prediction: Kaitlyn (5-4 criteria)
My Prediction: AJ Lee
Wade Barrett © v Curtis Axel v The Miz
|Criteria||Wade Barrett||Curtis Axel||The Miz||Criteia Winner|
|WWE win %||40%|
|PPV win %||26%|
|Last 10||2||9||9||Curtis Axel|
|Last 50||20||14||34||The Miz|
Champions Advantage: Wade Barrett
Company Status: While this one is a little hard to determine with how Axel is being pushed at the moment until we see how far his said friendships with big names I have to give this point to Miz as in the overall picture he seems to mean more to the those in charge due to his near Cena love of doing outside appearances.
My Analysis: Is it just me or are there other people who are sick of seeing Barrett and Miz fight over the Intercontinental belt. While I am a fan of Barrett I just want to see him removed from the belt as this whole run has been one of the lowest points of his career in my eyes and will take him a bit to recover from it. Now it was quite obvious that Fandango was supposed to win the title at Payback as he has been destined too since the post-Wrestlemania crowd started Fandangoing to his theme song, however due to a concussion (seems to be the preferred injury of the year doesn’t it?) that is no longer going to happen. Instead Curtis Axel has been added to the match and you just know that instead of holding off for him he is going to become Champion now, his current push demands it.
Analysis Prediction: The Miz (6-3(Wade), 2(Curtis) criteria
My Prediction: Curtis Axel
Dean Ambrose © v Kane
|Criteria||Dean Ambrose||Kane||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||64%|
|PPV win %||62%|
|Last 50||32||31||Dean Ambrose|
June 10 2013 – Raw: Kane by DQ
April 30 2013 – Smackdown: Ambrose by pinfall
Champions Advantage: Dean Ambrose
Company Status: Really starting to wonder why I even bother putting this part in some times, I mean at times it is easy, say like when Cena is in the match, but then others it is enough to give me a headache trying to think how to give the criteria point to. This is one of those times. Kane is a vet who is probably at one of the peaks of his career and is a name who the WWE call upon when they are looking for someone to play a part in a storyline. On the otherside we have Dean Ambrose, the unofficial leader of the major heel faction of the WWE and quite obviously the wrestler they are going to push to the roof when it is time. With the way everything is at the moment I have to give this to Kane as he is the proven commodity for the WWE.
My Analysis: I like the idea behind this match in the sense that they gave one of Team Hell No the chance at Ambrose instead of just having them challenge for the Tag Titles one more time, I just feel that they went with the wrong member. However in saying that let me just put my booking hat on for a second and propose this little scenario, next month at Money in the Bank Kane and Daniel Bryan switch places and we see Bryan face Ambrose in what could be one of the matches of the year. However to get to that point we first need to get through this match and if I didn’t make it quite obvious already then here it is again, Ambrose will win here. While giving Kane the US Title, practically the only title he has never held in WWE, would be a nice gesture it is no where near time to take the belt off of Ambrose.
Analysis Prediction: Dean Ambrose (6-3 criteria)
My Prediction: Dean Ambrose
The Shield © v Daniel Bryan & Randy Orton
|Criteria||Roman Reigns||Seth Rollins||Daniel Bryan||Randy Orton||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||73%|
|PPV win %||100%|
|Criteria||The Shield||Bryan/Orton||Criteria Winner|
|Last 10||7||4/7||The Shield|
|Tag Team titles|
Champions Advantage: The Shield
Company Status: After giving the last match to Kane in this round I have to follow suit and give this to Bryan & Orton. Orton is someone that the WWE constantly call upon to be the major player when needed and Bryan is the current guy that they are calling on to be the main entertainer for the company whereas The Shield are still earning their place.
My Analysis: Just like before with Ambrose it is too early for his two partners in The Shield to lose their titles, especially to a throw together team like Bryan and Orton. No The Shield will win here but that will not be the end of the story. While I fantasy booked in the last match, it is more wishful thinking on my part that we would see a big Bryan/Ambrose match at the next PPV as more than likely something else is going to happen. The main talking point of this match is more who will be the one to turn heel, Bryan or Orton, as both have recently flirted with that side of their characters. What I would like to see is Orton turn as that side of him has always made him more watchable and will help him get back to the top of the card, but that will not be the case. What will happen is it will be Bryan that turns as his cheers are becoming too much (even beyond Ryback’s who the WWE made sure they put a stop too) for the WWE to handle so therefore he will be the next person to be going up against Cena, heres just hoping that my prediction from earlier in the year comes true and it is Bryan that Cena puts over clean.
Analysis Prediction: The Shield (7-2 criteria)
My Prediction: The Shield
Chris Jericho v CM Punk
|Criteria||Chris Jericho||CM Punk||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||44%|
|PPV win %||41%|
|Last 10||8||5||Chris Jericho|
|Last 50||19||26||CM Punk|
February 4 2013 – Raw: Punk by pinfall
April 29 2012 – Extreme Rules: Punk by pinfall (Street Fight, WWE Title, Allstate Arena)
April 1 2012 – Wrestlemania XXVII: Punk by Submission (WWE Title)
June 9 2009 – Smackdown: Punk won
May 19 2009 – Smackdown: Punk by DQ
May 18 2009 – Superstars: Punk by pinfall
January 26 2009 – Raw: Jericho by pinfall
December 22 2008 – Raw: Jericho won
October 13 2008 – Raw: Punk by pinfall
September 15 2008 – Raw: Jericho won (Steel Cage, World Title)
August 18 2008 – Raw: Jericho by pinfall (Allstate Arena)
April 21 2008 – Raw: Punk by pinfall
March 31 2008 – Raw: Jericho by pinfall
CM Punk 8-5
Company Status: Pretty easy one here while Jericho is a big draw to the company the fact he is unreliable to stick around for long periods of time means that his status can’t be that high. Compare that too Punk who while having been missing from action for the last couple of months did so with the WWE’s blessing for the major effort he has done for the last couple years as one of their major players.
My Analysis: First thing first, yes I believe Punk will turn up and yes he will wrestle. Now as to the match itself, well honestly I got blind-sided when this match was announced. I mean the thought hadn’t even crossed my mind that these two would cross paths again with both of them on different tangents at the moment. Am I complaining that they are fighting each other again, well no not really as they will put on a great match as usual, it’s just more that the match seems out of place with where they both were the last couple of months. This match is being booked as the third of their series to find out who is the Best in the World but it just doesn’t seem to fit correctly there as Punk won the first two in the series so therefore should already have that title won. In fact Punk has won the last 6 times these two have faced each other thus really putting that question to bed. Now the real talking point of this match should be that it is the rubber match for them at Allstate Arena as they have both won one a piece when fighting there. The winner though I can’t see it falling any other way than Punk continuing his dominance and once again beating Jericho and sending him on his way to his next vacation from wrestling.
Analysis Prediction: CM Punk (7-1 criteria)
My Prediction: CM Punk
Dolph Ziggler © v Alberto Del Rio
|Criteria||Dolph Ziggler||Alberto Del Rio||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||38%|
|Alberto Del Rio|
|PPV win %||36%|
|Alberto Del Rio|
|Last 10||5||8||Alberto Del Rio|
|Last 50||19||35||Alberto Del Rio|
|Alberto Del Rio|
May 6 2013 – Raw: Del Rio by DQ
April 8 2013 – Raw: Ziggler by pinfall (World Title)
March 5 2013 – Raw: Del Rio by Submission
February 18 2013 – Smackdown: Del Rio by Submission
February 12 2013 – Main Event: Del Rio by Submission
January 29 2013 – Smackdown: Del Rio by Submission
June 25 2012 – Raw: No Contest
Alberto Del Rio 5-1-1
Champions Advantage: Dolph Ziggler
Company Status: Even though Ziggler is the World Champion I can’t give him this point as it is pretty hard to believe the company see him anything better than a glorified jobber with the amount of times he is on the losing side of the equation. Also it doesn’t help that Del Rio is there go to Hispanic star since Rey and Sin Cara are always hurt.
My Analysis: I am not going to spend much time on this one as it is getting rather late here and I want to get this column done and the fact I don’t have much to say ally. Ziggler needs to win to make himself a somewhat credible champion. Since he won the belt he has not done much , in fact he has hardly won much. A straight forward win in a proper match against the person he beat for the title would be a very good start to gaining back some of his credibility.
Analysis Prediction: Alberto Del Rio (7-2 criteria)
My Prediction: Dolph Ziggler
John Cena © v Ryback
|Criteria||John Cena||Ryback||Criteria Winner|
|WWE win %||67%|
|PPV win %||59%|
|Last 10||6||4||John Cena|
|Last 50||37||35||John Cena|
May 19 2013 – Extreme Rules: No Contest (Last Man Standing, WWE Title)
Champions Advantage: John Cena
Company Status: Well John Cena is the poster boy of the WWE.
My Analysis: Well I said it last month and I will say it again this time, I don’t want the title to go around Ryback’s waist, well not any more anyway. At one stage his character looked like it was going to add up to something, now it is nothing more than another mistake in booking. Ryback is no longer the beast he was and it is a shame to see that as he was going so well at one stage. Anyway the way I see this match going down is Cena will win the first fall (Lumberjack) and Ryback will win the second (table). The reason I say this is because of Cena’s shocking record when it comes to Table Matches. Cena has easily been put through more tables than he has ever put anyone else so it makes sense for this to be the fall Ryback wins. Of course that means that Cena will win the last fall and thus hopefully end his feud with Ryback so he can move onto someone new, say like Daniel Bryan maybe.
Analysis Prediction: John Cena (10-2 criteria)
My Prediction: John Cena
Well there you have it folks, another pre-PPV Analysis in the books. So how do you all think I did? Have I managed to finally get myself that elusive 100% correct that has alluded me for so long? Whatever happens at Payback though don’t start thinking it will be a long time before you hear from me again. In fact you will hear from me later today as I make my LOPRadio debut when I join Hustle and Repo straight after Payback to give our thoughts on what went down at the PPV and what is to come in the future. So pop on over to Blog Talk Radio after the PPV and sit back and enjoy what will be an interesting show. Other than that I have another special column coming up in a few days so until then remember THE STATS NEVER LIE.
Facebook: Add me as a friend here