The Royal Rumble has always been the quickest, most convenient bildungsroman the WWE has at its disposal. Formulaic and self-contained, it can easily make a new star in an hour or so, providing that essential next step one up-and-comer might need in order to establish himself in the upper echelon. Just ask guys like Shawn Michaels, Batista, and Rey Mysterio (whether you like him or not) – examine what their Rumble wins have done to their careers, and you’ll see that it is their achievement of mercilessly dispatching 29 other men which was mainly responsible for propelling them into the main event, in their respective times.
And the Royal Rumble may arguably have the distinction of being the only event that could consistently excite people on a yearly basis. Wrestlemania may be the biggest event of a WWE year, but even its excitement factor will rise and fall depending on who and what is on the card. Meanwhile, the Rumble – the biggest behemoth of a match in the WWE year, never mind your Hell in a Cells and Elimination Chambers - has never lost its novelty, even outlasting the aforementioned Cell and Chamber matches. People look forward to it, because unlike Hell in a Cell, the Rumble is highly adaptable and never specific, until it comes to the last man standing. Unlike an Elimination Chamber or Money in the Bank match, almost everyone is involved, and one can sincerely say that anyone and everyone have an equally legitimate chance of winning. (This time, you can ask Santino.)
All of that said, however, let me ask you this: why should we still care about who wins the Royal Rumble?
I ask this question because the past four years of the Rumble have managed to undo most of the prestige of winning it. And most of that prestige was built up by the better part of the previous decade, which elevated many winners. The past four Rumble winners – three of whom theoretically didn’t need to be elevated by a win (but that’s a smaller issue) – have gone on to lose their title matches at Wrestlemania (or otherwise, in Cena’s case), after a steady seven years of Rumble winners never failing to prevail in April. Don’t get me wrong, the Rumble is still an exciting match, but this current losing streak has greatly diminished the stock of the winner – especially when the trend is likely to continue this year, but we’ll get to that a little later.
“So what if there’s a losing streak?” you ask. “Wrestling is not about results, it’s about the story.” Well, what did and didn’t happen in each of those stories never really helped the people in question. Let’s take a closer look at the Rumble winners:
John Cena (2008) - By far the most egregious offender. Cena made an electrifying return from an injury as #30 to earn a feel-good win. Cena at that point had never needed the win, but we let it slide due to his surprising comeback. The baffling booking decision came sooner than later, as he announced that he would be using the title shot at No Way Out, and that’s something I still shake my head at years later. He lost the match via disqualification, which makes the rewarded opportunity even more of a waste, in order to also get Triple H and make the rematch a triple threat – which he also lost.
Randy Orton (2009) - The one with the most promise. After winning, Orton would become the best heel he would ever be. IED Orton was a no-nonsense character, and no doubt he would have had a cathartic victory at Wrestlemania, even if because everyone was tired of Triple H always being champion. But no, Triple H was typical Triple H in the clutch and never allowed Orton to follow through on his momentum.
Edge (2010) - A lot more self-serving, yet logical, than practical. Like Cena, Edge also came back from an injury, although his return was much less of a surprise than Cena’s. Like Orton, Edge also had a lot of momentum going into Wrestlemania and was expected to win, especially considering that he was the face, the lead role in his own feel-good Wrestlemania story. But he would not make a Wrestlemania moment that year, as for some reason Jericho was booked to retain the World Heavyweight Championship.
Alberto del Rio (2011) - After four years of not elevating anybody new (Undertaker won in 2007), the Rumble finally makes (or at least, tries to make) a new star in Alberto del Rio. Granted, he was being railroaded to the top, but a new face is a new face. Del Rio tries to head into Wrestlemania with as much momentum as he can garner, but his babyface-like characterization sabotaged his heat, and he was still not ready by that time. He would lose at Wrestlemania 27’s opening match, but had Edge been diagnosed with his career-ending injury earlier, Del Rio would have undoubtedly gotten his first Wrestlemania moment then.
Four losses, all instrumental in bringing up the overall win/loss record of the title match to 11-9, going back to when the title match stipulation was introduced in 1992. That’s almost half, and it wouldn’t be such a big deal if 1) the losses were meaningful (i.e. Shawn Michaels lost his title match from his first Rumble win in 1995, but ended up reuniting with Diesel), and 2) the losses weren’t back-to-back. The last time somebody lost his title match before Cena in 2008 was the Rock back in 2000 (who technically was part of a Fatal Four-Way, but he was still a Rumble winner in a title match), and the year before that saw Vince McMahon winning and not even going to ‘Mania as a contender, and the year before that saw Steve Austin win his 2nd Rumble and his title match.
Now, I mentioned earlier that this trend is likely going to continue this year. That’s because the logical and emotional favorite to win this year is none other than Chris Jericho. Other names, like Randy Orton and Sheamus, have been thrown into the mix as possible winners, but none of them have as much to gain from a win as Jericho does. He’s part of a storyline all eyes are on, and that storyline ideally seems to rely heavily on the win to progress.
This is where the assumptions gets heavier – if Jericho does win, there’s absolutely no doubt that he’ll be going after CM Punk. And given the progressive wrestling mind that Jericho is, there is no way that he’ll use this angle to put himself over, especially when he knows he’s not the person who needs to be put over. If you haven’t figured it out by now, that means Chris Jericho is losing to CM Punk at Wrestlemania.
And strangely enough, after all that I’ve said here, I would actually be okay with that loss even if it furthers the streak. Mainly because the hypothesis I’ve laid out here is set up in a way that the loss becomes meaningful – the main criterion I’ve been looking for – and not just another seemingly random booking decision. Of course, we’ll always think our opinion, our idea, our way is better than what we’re getting.
So now that’s out of the way, to hell with it. Let the bodies hit the floor.
*****
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to another edition of ROH Friday. I’m going to tell you right out the bat that this week is going to see things a little differently for this column. Because Ring of Honor took around three weeks to join us in 2012 (after setting up new storylines in the Final Battle pay-per-view), there aren’t a lot of things to talk about until the company gains steam with their storylines for a few more weeks.
So in line with that, this week’s ROH Friday is – as you may have already guessed from the title – a running diary of last Saturday’s (Jan. 21) ROH episode. And because I’m covering the episode here, I’m not doing the “official” version in the Results section of the main page.
So without further ado, let’s begin!
01:30 - Broadcast begins with a short video of the Final Battle main event. Everything always looks better in video package form. They’re lucky the last thing on that was Kevin Steen being Kevin Steen.
03:03 - Kenny King vs. Matt Hardy Buck is our main event tonight, with respective partners in their respective corners. For all the criticism the Hardy Boyz 2.0 get, I’ll be honest and say that I’m starting to see some improvement in them as heels. They’re still largely spot monkeys, though, but back at Final Battle, they were the ones miraculously wrestling a slightly less spotty style.
03:23 - Our first match is Mike Mondo vs. Eddie Edwards. Ugh because we’re going to be subjected to a Mondo video promo, and double ugh because… Eddie Edwards. Good to see that Mondo is apparently staying on with the company, though.
04:10 - I’m still not sure how seriously we’re supposed to take Mike Mondo. The contents of his promo are usually hammy, complete with ridiculous banging his head on a locker door. The hip-hop fan in me did like the part about “Die Hard” and “cry hard,” though.
04:44 - On the other hand, if Mondo overacts, then Edwards underacts. Why can’t the Wolves have a manager? They’re an entire fighting camp, and they can’t afford a guy to speak for them?
07:55 - Not even a minute into the match and Edwards is already on to his usual stuff. Which is fine for now… because it’s early.
09:51 - You know Eddie Edwards has a big problem when the best part of a Wolves match is the resthold downtime.
11:30 - LMAO at Mondo trying to call for a time out.
12:09 - Have I mentioned how ridiculous Mondo’s black-blond hair looks? The only one who seems to do it properly is Alex Shelley.
12:49 - Edwards wins with the Die Hard. What, he forgot how to do a Dragon Sleeper after Final Battle? All that training was for nothing? Thanks for nothing as usual, Wolves.
13:54 - ROH needs to stop doing nonsense like what they’re trying to do with Showdown in the Sun. It’s both a house show and a big event. Either make it a set of TV tapings (which would be a better move) or go live and make it a PPV.
14:03 - Also, Davey Richards is showing even less microphone skills in trying to sell an entire show than Eddie Edwards did with hyping his match up earlier. Why are these guys at the top again?
15:04 - A look back at the tag title match at Final Battle and the de facto double turn (because nobody’s acknowledged it so far).
16:51 - WGTT with a video promo, saying they were taken out of their game and being forced to wrestle a hardcore style. This is typical heel stuff, especially given how they wrestled. Let’s see if logic will be followed here.
17:27 - They just called the Briscoes rednecks and just insulted the Hammerstein Ballroom fans (who, by the way, deserve to be insulted for cheering anything and everything). Yup, heel turn.
17:56 - The hell is an “outroar,” Charlie?
18:30 - Shelton’s mad, real mad. Yes indeed, heel turn.
18:45 - That was really a huge change from the kind of things they usually say before Final Battle. I do wish ROH would move on from the video promo format, but I loved it. WGTT – or Charlie, at least – have come a long way from their WWE days.
19:13 - $5,000 fine for anyone who hits an unprotected chairshot. I dig that.
20:05 - Briscoes coming out to a huge, huge pop. Jeff and I, as part of our analysis of the tag division, wondered how the Briscoes would achieve even more staying power now that they’re longtime ROH veterans. This face turn just rejuvenated their career.
21:00 - “Since we were the ones who got hit with chairs, we should get that money!” Fair point.
22:24 - Is ROH really exploring the face/heel dynamic right now? You know, like Cena and Kane are doing?
23:30 - The crowd do love their Briscoes.
23:47 - We get a second match, thank god. Out here is the Havana Pitbull, Ricky Reyes. Ricky Reyes is also the name of a Philippine gay icon. True story.
24:12 - And out here is Roderick Strong, the man who doesn’t know how to be a heel… wait, did Nigel just call Michael Elgin Roddy’s “life partner”?
27:11 - Truth Martini wants to start following the Code of Honor this year. What the hell is going on.
28:30 - Move exchanges back and forth, without pausing. This is why people don’t like indy wrestling.
29:27 - Roddy rolled him all the way up, if you know what I mean, and Reyes’s ass was censored. Hilarious because you don’t see that a lot anymore.
30:21 - Embassy shake-up? Color me interested.
32:13 - Please give the belt to Steen already, ROH. Please. If you want to ever beat TNA, you have to do this.
33:21 - Why introduce Evans just now? And why is the camera zooming into Ciampa’s face as Evans is talking? Does the cameraman have a hard-on for Evans? Get it together, production crew!
34:10 - So the big news is that the Embassy has become an actual company. Interesting to see where that goes.
35:15 - ROH is having their 10th anniversary PPV… back in Hammerstein. Jesus. Shoot me now.
36:20 - We get an interview with Team Richards, and O’Reilly wants to be Davey’s new Wolves partner. Meanwhile, lack of acting skills from both men – you know you suck when your interviewer is even marginally better than you.
38:25 - Main event time. Let’s see if this’ll be good, but I’m not expecting much. There should only be less than 10 minutes for this match, which could either be a bane or a boon for these two.
40:21 - In an even clearer sign that the Young Bucks are trying to be the Hardyz 2.0, Matt is already starting to look just a little flabby here, just like his namesake.
41:34 - That was a unique arm drag by Kenny King.
44:34 - King with a spotty sequence of quick moves and almost completely misses a standing moonsault. Not good.
45:31 - A lot of people in ROH spam superkicks like it's their business. In WWE, you only see a few people doing it (Dolph Ziggler, the Usos), and even then, they only occasionally do it.
46:45 - Kevin Kelly, in the middle of a quick spiel getting ROH over, says that every ROH show is “PPV quality.” Do you not realize that that’s exactly what’s wrong with the company?
47:01 - And in another moronic move by both production and Nick Jackson and Rhett Titus at ringside, the camera cuts away just as Kenny is hitting his Coronation finisher, because Nick and Rhett are getting into a confrontation at ringside. That is bush league, people. Time these things properly!
47:37 - Nick hits Kenny with one of Rhett’s crutches to help Matt win. Forgettable match. Forgettable show.
Overall Thoughts: If ROH still had any momentum left after the long holiday break, consider that completely sapped. This was a very, very weak way to open the new year. They did go three matches, but they were all terribly forgettable. The only bright spots involved WGTT, the Briscoes, and Kevin Steen, with each of them proving why they have their spots at the top. On the other hand, the Wolves and Roderick Strong still suck. This company needs to hire a consultant. C-/D+
*****
We’ve finally made it to the first milestone of the Road to Wrestlemania. The Royal Rumble has been more than introduced to everyone at this point – by my own hand, no less – so there’s no need for me to talk about the event’s background any further, like I always do during a prediction column. Oh, and yes, this is a prediction column, if you are new to Ro is War.
I will say, though, that this year’s Rumble is a strange beast. There are only four matches on the card, and while it is pretty indicative of the WWE’s tendency to devote all their efforts to thoroughly booking the main event and neglecting the lowercard, they did manage to do a good job of disguising that weakness with the strength of said main event storylines. One could also argue that it’s a case of both bad luck and myopia on the part of the writers.
The U.S. title scene did see a lot of activity during the build-up, but only because it mainly served the narrative interests of Cena/Kane. Due to how Zack Ryder was sacrificed (perhaps for his own good, in the future – but that’s a story for another column), Jack Swagger has no logical challengers for his own match on the card.
On the other hand, what started out as promising in Goldust’s involvement with the Cody Rhodes/Booker T feud stalled very early on, for some reason. Evan Bourne sabotaged Air Boom and the development of the tag division in general with his suspension. Nobody knows why Beth Phoenix has largely disappeared, and why Natalya is feuding with Tamina, or even jobbing in the first place.
So that begs the question: who’s opening this show? Will they pull another Wrestlemania 27 and begin with the World Heavyweight title match? Cena vs. Kane is the only non-title match on the card, but booking logic says that this match should both open and not open the show. (Open because it’s not for a title, but not open because it involves the company’s biggest draw.) I guess we’ll just have to look out for an impromptu match. (And I’m really hoping it’s a triple threat tag match between Epico and Primo, the Usos, and YoshiTino for the tag titles.)
All right, I believe I’ve aired my grievances enough. On to the predictions.
Big Show vs. Daniel Bryan (c) in a Steel Cage for the World Heavyweight Championship
Due to his sudden injury, I don’t even think Mark Henry is going to make it to this match at all. The most that could happen is that he could work and be largely immobile for a good part of it, but you’ll be kidding yourself if you think that he has a real chance now.
Anyway, I think Show has finally established himself as a brand-carrying main eventer over the past month. However, as I’ve always predicted when it came to a Big Show title match, it’s so late in his career that he never really gets in the way of letting the young’ins have their moment. Meanwhile, Daniel Bryan is exactly the kind of heel the Miz wishes he was, and yes, he’s pretty much a full-blown heel already. There’s no snapping moment; the turn was gradual and well-executed, and if you don’t pay attention, you’d think he was still face. So because Bryan is the kind of fighting heel the company needs more of, I expect this contest to be a brutal, back-and-forth affair - and somewhere along the way, he capitalizes and escapes that cage to retain the title.
Winner: Daniel Bryan (still World Heavyweight Champion)
John Cena vs. Kane I’ve already said all I can say about this feud, except one: I don’t think this ends here. It just so happens that the next PPV is Elimination Chamber, and as of right now, this matchup has no extra stipulations. That means it’s pretty likely that they’re saving the maximum carnage Cena can unleash for the confines of Satan’s Playground. What exactly this does for his feud with the Rock, I’m not really sure yet. I think he’s supposed to beat Kane up and get cheered for it, and he’ll snap, asking everyone if this is what they really wanted. Something like that, I’m sure.
Winner: Kane (by DQ)
CM Punk vs. Dolph Ziggler with John Laurinaitis as Special Guest Referee for the WWE Championship
It’s not as overt as with Cena/Kane, but the company also did a good job booking this storyline along. I honestly did not know how, beyond any Johnny Ace bumps and referee switcheroos a la Edge and Clay Matthews last year, Punk was going to leave St. Louis as the champ, but threatening him with a Triple H-led performance review was a clever way to make him play nice. While reviews and firings at the top position have been overused in the past year, the last one has been forgotten just enough for this move to feel fresh again.
Meanwhile, it’s not quite Dolph’s time just yet. Just a few more big matches, though, before we finally see him win it before the year ends, perhaps via Money in the Bank.
Winner: CM Punk (still WWE Champion)
Royal Rumble Match
I’ll be honest: I seriously don’t know how this one is going to go, and if only I could just not be invested in a winner and let it all unfold, I would. Thankfully, this year’s LOP Prediction contest just has the Rumble winner as a bonus question, but all the same, I still make my own predictions for posterity.
First off, as I mentioned earlier this week in Rumblings, Chris Jericho is the safest pick yet. On the other hand, rumors are swirling that there will be a major twist to the ending (and despite what people actually working in the business will tell you, dirtsheet rumors about booking plans are right around half the time, at least). So if Jericho is the safest pick and there’s a twist on the way, then chances are substantial that Jericho might not be the winner.
Actually, what I really think is that the rumor just increased the odds of a potential title unification storyline for Wrestlemania. But honestly, I really just don’t want to think about it anymore. I just want to see it play out.
Winner: Daniel Bryan
There you have it. At least four matches, and one wildly unpredictable Royal Rumble. But that’s the beauty of it, isn’t it?
Of course, you know the drill. What do you think? Who do you have? Does this all even make sense? Let me know.
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The Best Match You Didn’t See On TV This Week
But please also consider this, even though it’s a Jinder Mahal match.
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LOPR is at it again, and this time, just like this column it's all about Rumble predictions. Go and give them a listen.
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All right, me and my homie need your help. You may have heard that a bunch of ex-WWE wrestlers are coming over to the Philippines to put on a big show, and possibly start a new promotion in the process (which I’ll discuss next week). They’re holding a contest where one lucky male and female fan get to be guest managers and ring announcers, and we need everybody’s help to win.
We’re pretty dead set on making it either him or myself. I know I would do the same if any of you were given this kind of opportunity, so please help us out!
If you’re an ROH fan, then you’d do well to read my coverage of the recently re-debuted ROH television show. It comes out every week (as much as possible); sometimes it's late, but it still comes.
Also, for my fellow Filipinos, please tune in to my buddy Stan’s radio show S&M: The Morning After every weekend from 6 to 9 am (10 am on Sundays) on Mellow 94.7. If you find yourself up early on a weekend, do check it out!
